It's the number nobody will give you straight: you call for a quote and get "well, it depends." It does depend, but there are real ranges, and you deserve to know them before a salesperson anchors you. Here's what a new AC, furnace, or full system actually costs to install in 2026, what legitimately moves the number, and when a quote has drifted into "get a second opinion" territory.
A standard residential replacement runs about $5,000–$12,000 installed in 2026. A furnace alone averages around $4,800; a central AC install lands roughly $3,900–$8,000; a combined system averages higher, often $11,600–$14,100. Past about $15,000 for a straight swap (no new ductwork, no electrical work), it's worth a hard look at why. Past $20,000 with no major extra work, a quote is very likely overquoted. One widely-shared case had a $12,000 job invoiced at $29,000. None of these are your price; they're the yardstick you compare your itemized quotes against.
"Installed" means equipment + labor: the all-in number on a normal replacement, before any major extra work. These are national ballparks; high-cost metros run well above, value markets below.
| System | Typical installed | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Gas furnace only | $2,800–$6,900 | Averages around $4,800. Higher for high-efficiency (96%+ AFUE) or modulating units. |
| Central AC only | $3,900–$8,000 | Driven by tonnage and SEER2 rating. |
| Central AC + furnace (combined) | $8,000–$14,000+ | Full-system averages often land $11,600–$14,100. |
| Heat pump | $6,000–$13,000 | Replaces both heating and cooling; cold-climate models cost more. |
| Ductless mini-split | $4,000–$11,000 | Depends heavily on number of indoor heads/zones. |
| Standard replacement (overall) | $5,000–$12,000 | The headline range most homeowners should expect. |
A quote can run well above these ranges and still be completely fair, if there's real extra work behind it. These are the legitimate cost-drivers, and each should appear as its own line on the quote so you can see what you're paying for:
| Driver | Typical add | When it applies |
|---|---|---|
| New or modified ductwork | +$2,100–$4,000 | Leaky, undersized, or incompatible ducts; layout changes. |
| Electrical / panel upgrade | +$1,500–$4,000 | Heat pumps and electric backup on an older, near-full panel. |
| New line set / refrigerant lines | +$500–$1,200 | Often replaced (not reused) with new A2L refrigerants. |
| Premium / variable-speed equipment | varies | Higher comfort and efficiency tiers cost more, legitimately. |
| Asbestos abatement (pre-1980 homes) | +$2,000–$3,500 | Licensed removal of old duct wrap. |
| High-cost region | +30–45% | Coastal metros, NYC, Hawaii/Alaska run far above national. |
| Your quote (standard swap) | The read |
|---|---|
| Within $5,000–$12,000 | In the typical range. Compare itemized quotes; lowest isn't always best. |
| $12,000–$15,000 | Above typical, often fine, but ask what's driving it (premium equipment, region, minor extra work). |
| $15,000–$20,000 | Worth a hard look. Can be fair with real itemized extra work; if it's a lump sum, that's the first thing to fix. |
| Over $20,000, no major extra work | Very likely overquoted. Insist on a fully itemized written quote and get 2–3 on identical scope. |
Don't eyeball it against a table. Run it. Our free autopsy tool takes your total and system type and tells you where it lands against these ranges, plus what's padded and what's missing.
Run the free quote autopsy →The installed ranges by system type, the legitimate cost-drivers, and the "is this overquoted?" thresholds, on one page you can take to every quote. One email, no spam.
A standard residential replacement runs about $5,000–$12,000 installed (equipment + labor). A combined central AC and furnace often averages $11,600–$14,100. Heat pumps run roughly $6,000–$13,000. High-cost metros run well above these; value markets below. Your real number depends on your home and needs an in-person load calculation.
A gas furnace alone typically runs $2,800–$6,900 installed, averaging around $4,800. High-efficiency (96%+ AFUE) and modulating units cost more. If your quote is much higher than this for a furnace-only job with no other work, ask what's driving it.
A central AC install typically runs $3,900–$8,000, driven mainly by tonnage (size) and SEER2 efficiency rating. As of 2026, new equipment uses A2L refrigerants (R-454B or R-32), which adds roughly 8–15% versus older R-410A systems.
It depends on the scope. For a straight replacement with no new ductwork or electrical work, $15,000 is above typical and worth a hard look at why. It can be entirely fair if there's real itemized extra work: new ducts, a panel upgrade, premium equipment, or a high-cost region. The test is whether those cost-drivers appear as separate line items on a written quote. Over $20,000 with no major extra work is very likely overquoted.
Two big reasons: the refrigerant transition (new equipment must use A2L refrigerants like R-454B/R-32, adding about 8–15% to equipment), and general labor and material inflation. Note that the federal 25C tax credit ended for systems placed in service after December 31, 2025, so don't let anyone include it in a 2026 quote.